NOAA forecasts a strong El Niño winter with milder temperatures and higher storm risks across the US.

El Niño involves above-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific that shift global weather patterns. The 1997-1998 season brought record rainfall and widespread flooding to California. These weather shifts occur within long-term climate trends.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported on May 20, 2024, that the US warmed by approximately 4 degrees Fahrenheit between 1974 and 2024. Climate Central reported in a 2023 study that annual snowfall in the US declined in nearly two-thirds of the country since 1970. These past records inform current modeling. The intensity of the current event challenges meteorologists. The current El Niño is considered near-record strong and is expected to reach its peak intensity in December 2026.

The pattern typically directs the jet stream toward the southern United States, increasing the risk of severe storms and flooding in that region. While the forecast suggests potential drought relief for many regions, the unprecedented nature of this winter's climate pattern remains a point of scientific uncertainty.

1. Drought relief: NOAA anticipates that drought conditions will improve or end in parts of the western United States, the Southwest, the Rockies, the southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi valley, and the East. This could alleviate long-standing water shortages in these regions.

2. Milder temperatures: Approximately 41 of the lower 48 states are forecast to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter. This shift may reduce heating demands for many households across the country.

3. Southern precipitation: The El Niño pattern typically directs the jet stream toward the southern United States, leading to increased storm activity and cooler, wetter weather in that region. This moisture is expected to benefit areas that have previously struggled with dry conditions.

4. Snowfall in specific regions: While northern areas face reduced snow, the southern Rockies, parts of the Southeast, and the Southwest are projected to receive more snowfall than is typical. This provides a localized boost to snowpack in these specific mountain and regional areas.

1. California faces risks of inland flooding, high winds, and coastal flooding. Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on October 15, 2026. The declaration allows the state to mobilize resources for the expected weather.

2. El Niño raises the probability of thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast during winter months, particularly in Florida. These weather events impact regional infrastructure and public safety.

3. NOAA predicts below-normal snowfall across the northern United States. This outlook includes the Northeast, the Great Lakes, the upper Midwest, and the northern Rockies. AccuWeather analysts predict that Chicago, Boston, New York, and Philadelphia will receive 50% or less of their average winter snowfall.

4. Forecasting uncertainty: MIT research scientist Judah Cohen expressed caution regarding the forecast on October 15, 2026. He noted that the current 'unprecedented' El Niño lacks historical analogues, which makes him less confident in the predictions.