Middle East Oil Flows Rebound to Pre-War Levels Amid Regional Instability

Middle East crude oil exports averaged 18 million barrels per day from March 2025 through February 2026. The US-Israel war on Iran disrupted these flows. This conflict increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claimed its maritime attacks forced US warships to withdraw from the region. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer authorized the use of British bases for defensive strikes against Iranian missile sites.

Shipping routes face daily threats. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent escalation of the conflict, G7 nations agreed on October 2, 2026, to release 100 million barrels of emergency diesel and crude oil to stabilize record-high fuel prices. Regional producers are seeking alternative export paths.

1. Crude oil exports reached between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24, 2024. Exports held at that level between September 27 and 29, 2024. These figures exceeded the 18 million barrels per day average recorded before the conflict. Kpler reported the data. Regional producers maintained supply chains despite the ongoing conflict.

2. Infrastructure diversification improves flow stability. Producers increasingly use pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy reduces their reliance on the waterway. It ensures consistent export volumes when maritime transit faces security challenges.

3. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rebounded. Cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly volume in September 2024 since February 2024. The data indicates that regional energy infrastructure maintains operational capacity despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

1. Shipping faces daily security threats. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported at least one attack daily in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2, 2023. These incidents endanger crews and vessels. The attacks disrupt energy transit routes.

2. Iranian officials dispute the status of the waterway. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US accepts a seven-day plan to reopen it. Shipping companies and energy markets face uncertainty due to the threat of a blockade.

3. Conflicting reports on transit volumes complicate the outlook. IRGC commander Ali Fadavi claimed that current oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are negligible at 3-4 million barrels per day. Kpler data cited by Al Jazeera shows higher regional crude exports, though the data measures a different scope.

4. Security concerns extend beyond the immediate region. The US Air Force withdrew all B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford in England following an investigation into a planned terror attack. This redeployment underscores the global security implications of the ongoing conflict and the potential for threats to manifest far from the primary theater of operations.