The Lancet Commission lists 17 global threats to human health and survival by 2100, including nuclear conflict and malicious AI use.

The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health formed in 2023 to assess long-term risks to human wellbeing. The 35 experts involved aimed to quantify the impact of various hazards over the next 75 years.

They developed a metric called disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to model the years of healthy life lost to sickness, disability, or early death. This framework allows researchers to compare disparate threats.

These range from environmental factors to geopolitical instability. The commission scheduled the presentation of its findings for the World Health Summit in Berlin on October 11, 2026. The report's warning regarding malicious AI coincides with broader security concerns, as Interpol recently reported that AI is accelerating the speed and detection difficulty of cyberattacks. Beyond extinction risks like nuclear conflict and bioweapons, the commission identified 17 major threats, including climate breakdown, antimicrobial resistance, and childhood malnutrition.

1. The commission established a quantitative framework to measure long-term health risks. The report models the impact of 17 distinct threats, such as climate change and antimicrobial resistance, over the next 75 years. It uses disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure health outcomes. Policymakers use these findings to prioritize interventions by the number of healthy years saved.

2. The report sets specific targets for global health policy. The commission estimates that limiting global heating to 1.8C instead of 4.4C could prevent the loss of 1.89 billion years of healthy life. These figures support climate mitigation strategies.

3. The assessment is the product of a effort by 35 experts. The commission plans to update its risk assessment annually to incorporate new data and emerging hazards. This commitment to iterative analysis ensures the findings remain relevant as global conditions evolve.

4. Christopher Murray, co-chair of the commission and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, described the findings as urgent. Murray stated that current leaders' decisions will affect the health and wellbeing of the next generation, as reported by The Guardian Science.

1. The commission warns that a collapse or significant reduction in international health aid could result in up to 1.5 billion Dalys lost before 2100. This highlights a major vulnerability in global health infrastructure, as nearly 70% of that impact would occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The commission estimates most of that burden would fall in sub-Saharan Africa.

2. The report identifies 17 threats, but the complexity of these interconnected issues poses a challenge for policy implementation. Threats like income inequality, low educational attainment, and unhealthy ageing are deeply embedded in socioeconomic structures. The commission's assessment does not offer specific policy solutions for these systemic problems.

3. The commission focuses on high-impact risks such as nuclear war and AI-driven bioweapons. This approach underscores the uncertainty surrounding future health outcomes. These threats are harder to quantify than established health metrics like smoking or high blood pressure. Leaders face difficulties when allocating resources between immediate health needs and long-term risks.

4. The report includes conventional conflict and declining overseas aid as major threats alongside existential risks like AI. This broad categorization may complicate the development of focused policy responses. Critics might argue that grouping diverse threats under a single metric like Dalys obscures the unique political and economic drivers behind each hazard.