INDIA 🔗 Part of: Natural Disasters and Environmental Emergencies (29) · 19 Sep 2026 · 17:33 GMT ·2 min read

India Faces Weakest Monsoon Since 2009 Amid Rising Food Inflation

India faces its weakest monsoon season since 2009, with rainfall 15% below the long-term average.

NEUTRALITY 84 · BALANCED· 2 sources

India faces its weakest monsoon season since 2009, with rainfall 15% below the long-term average. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a 10% shortfall in May 2026. This weather pattern slowed planting for rice, sugarcane, and corn. Food inflation reached 5.95% in August 2026, the seventh consecutive month of increases. Economist Yuvika Singhal stated that every 1% drop in rainfall typically adds 25 basis points to food inflation. The government responded with duty-free sugar imports and subsidized onions.

Context

The Indian monsoon season from June through September sustains the nation's agriculture and food security. On May 1, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast a 10% rainfall shortfall for the season. Recent data shows a 15% deficit.

This puts the country on track for its weakest monsoon since 2009, when rainfall dropped 18% below normal levels. The "El Nino" weather pattern disrupted typical rainfall distribution. This shortfall delayed planting for rice, sugarcane, and corn. Policymakers now monitor the impact on food prices as the season concludes.

Supportive perspectives

DW reported that the government authorized duty-free sugar imports. The government also sells subsidized onions in select states to manage food costs.
A potential tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in late September 2026 may provide relief. Meteorologists expect this weather event to reduce rainfall deficits in eastern and northeastern India by the end of the season.
The CRUCIAL prediction platform at Lancaster University provides a seasonal outlook. Researchers estimate a 68% probability that the final rainfall deficit will range from 10% to 20%.
Christian Werner of Global Weather Climate Analytics expects the seasonal rainfall deficit to reach between 13% and 16%.

Critical perspectives

Food inflation reached 5.95% in August 2026. This figure marks seven consecutive months of rising prices. Yuvika Singhal, an economist at QuantEco, stated that a 1 percentage point shortfall in monsoon precipitation typically increases food inflation by 25 basis points.
Farmers have planted fewer essential crops than they did at this time in the previous year. The delay in planting rice, sugarcane, and corn creates uncertainty for the harvest of this cycle.
The India Meteorological Department predicted a 10% rainfall shortfall for May 2026. Data now confirms a 15% deficit.
The current season is on track to be the weakest since 2009. Rainfall in 2009 was 18% below normal. These conditions pose a risk to food security.