Ethiopia’s Fragile Peace Faces Collapse Amid New Rebel Alliance and Renewed Fighting in Tigray

The conflict in Ethiopia began after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. War erupted in November 2020 between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Eritrean forces and regional militias participated in the fighting. The conflict caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and mass displacement. The parties signed the Pretoria Agreement on November 2, 2022.

This ended hostilities, but disputes over territory and foreign forces remained. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea gained independence in 1993. Recent Ethiopian government statements regarding Red Sea access increased regional tensions. The US allowed sanctions on Eritrean entities to expire on September 18, 2026. This shift in international pressure coincides with deteriorating internal stability.

1. The Ethiopian government stated that military operations are necessary to restore order and protect national sovereignty. The army reported killing more than 270 rebel fighters in the Amhara region. This campaign aims to suppress armed opposition and prevent the expansion of rebel-controlled territory.

2. The US government allowed its national emergency regarding Ethiopia to expire on September 18, 2026. Officials removed individuals, including Hagos Ghebrehiwet, from the sanctions list. This action marks a shift in US diplomatic strategy. The change alters the framework for how the Ethiopian government manages regional security.

3. The African Union monitors the situation. The organization stated that the seizure of airports by Tigrayan forces violates the Pretoria Agreement. This oversight creates a framework to hold parties accountable to the peace process. The framework pressures groups to return to the negotiating table.

4. Eritrea denied Ethiopian government accusations that it supports armed groups inside Ethiopia. The Eritrean government maintains this distance to preserve its regional standing. This denial remains central to diplomatic discussions regarding the conflict.

1. Tigrayan forces seized airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire. This action disrupted civilian flights and isolated local populations. The move blocks the delivery of goods and humanitarian aid. Fighting escalated on September 23, 2026. Civilians now face increased danger from these renewed hostilities.

2. Seven groups formed an alliance on September 21, 2026. This move indicates that the 2022 peace agreement fails to address grievances held by diverse political factions. The coalition includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army. These groups oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The alliance challenges the authority of the central government.

3. The Pretoria Agreement of November 2, 2022, left disputes over western Tigray territory and external military presence unresolved. These issues drive the current escalation. Analysts warn that violence will persist until these grievances are addressed.

4. Instability in the region resembles the conditions preceding the 2020 war. The 2022 peace agreement failed to resolve territorial disputes and political representation issues. These unresolved grievances caused tensions to resurface. A collapse of the agreement risks a return to the large-scale conflict that caused mass displacement.